Independents Surge in NC: What It Means for the 2026 Senate Fight

This week’s Discussion Points from David Winston of The Winston Group highlights North Carolina’s shifting electoral landscape ahead of the 2026 Senate race, following Senator Thom Tillis’s surprise retirement. The analysis zeroes in on two key takeaways: a notable rise in independent voters—now the largest voting bloc in the state—and a shift in ideological makeup, with moderates overtaking conservatives for the first time in recent cycles. While Republicans saw gains with independents in 2024, the declining party ID advantage suggests the GOP can no longer rely on past margins. With North Carolina now a top battleground, Winston underscores the urgent need for a center-focused strategy in 2026 to avoid the same pitfalls seen in recent Senate upsets across Georgia, Nevada, and Michigan.
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