How to Tell If the Numbers Are Real or Rigged

This week’s WG Discussion Points from David Winston highlights the growing problem of “rigged” numbers in politics, policy, and media. With public polls on Trump’s job approval ranging from +10 to -18 in just a two-week span, Winston warns that data is too often used to validate narratives instead of provide honest analysis. He points to the 2022 “Red Wave” polling frenzy and recent accusations of manipulated jobs numbers as prime examples of statistics being tailored for agendas. Winston outlines three red flags to watch for: when all data points favor one side, when reports read more like press releases than analysis, and when sources are hidden or selectively presented. As Congress returns this fall, his message is clear: don’t take numbers at face value—scrutinize them for the full picture.