Inflation Is the Test—and Voters Are Grading Washington

The Economy Is Always on the Ballot

In this analysis by David Winston of the Winston Group, a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans, one reality stands out: voters reward or punish political leadership based on how they feel about the economy. From President Reagan’s losses in 1982 to President Obama’s shellacking in 2010, inflation, wages, and job growth have repeatedly shaped midterm outcomes. Heading into 2026, that reality hasn’t changed—and inflation remains the dominant lens through which voters are grading Washington.

Prices vs. Paychecks

At the core of the electorate’s “inflation report card” is a simple question: are wages rising faster than prices? While inflation rarely drops below zero, voters care deeply about purchasing power. Under President Biden, prices rose faster than wages, leaving families effectively poorer. Since President Trump returned to office, wages have slightly outpaced inflation—but only marginally. For many voters, that improvement hasn’t yet translated into real relief at the grocery store or gas pump.

Perception Still Matters

Polling suggests most Americans still believe inflation is getting worse, not better. That perception—especially among independents—poses a serious challenge for Republicans heading into the midterms. Voters tend to trust what they see and feel in daily life more than political messaging, and attempts to minimize affordability concerns have backfired in past elections.

Independents Hold the Pen

Independents continue to be the decisive bloc. Recent gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey show that when independents break heavily against the party in power, the consequences are significant. Approval ratings on inflation and the broader economy among independents currently lean sharply negative—an unmistakable warning sign for Republicans.

The Path to a Passing Grade

The takeaway is clear: economic messaging cannot drift. Policies tied to energy costs, regulation, taxes, and job creation must be clearly linked to everyday affordability. As 2026 approaches, voters won’t be swayed by rhetoric alone—they’ll be issuing grades based on lived experience.