Why Presidential Approval Isn’t the Whole Story

Why Presidential Approval Doesn’t Always Decide Senate Races

As midterm conversations begin to take shape, one familiar question is back at the center of political analysis: how much does a president’s job approval really matter down-ballot?

New insights from The Winston Group, led by David Winston, suggest the answer is more nuanced than many assume.

The Traditional Midterm Headwind

Historically, a president’s approval rating has been a major factor in midterm elections—often creating challenges for candidates from the same party.

That dynamic is already part of the conversation heading into the next election cycle, particularly as polling shows fluctuations in approval for Donald Trump.

But history shows that approval ratings, while important, don’t tell the whole story.

Looking Back at 2022

In the 2022 midterms, then-President Joe Biden faced a national approval rating of 44% approval to 55% disapproval—numbers that typically signal a difficult environment for his party.

Yet several Democratic Senate incumbents still won re-election in competitive states.

Among them were:

• Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada
• Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire
• Mark Kelly in Arizona
• Raphael Warnock in Georgia

In several of those states, Biden’s approval rating was even lower than the national average—yet incumbents still prevailed.

What Made the Difference

According to the analysis, one of the most consistent factors across those races was performance with independent voters.

In states like Arizona and New Hampshire, independents made up a large share of the electorate—often outnumbering both Republicans and Democrats.

Winning that group proved critical.

For example:

• In Arizona, Kelly won independents by a wide margin
• In New Hampshire, Hassan secured a double-digit advantage among independents
• In Georgia, Warnock won independents despite a Republican advantage in party identification

Even in Nevada and Georgia—where Republicans held a party ID advantage—Democratic incumbents were still able to win.

Another key factor: crossover voters.

Each of these incumbents attracted a measurable share of voters who disapproved of the sitting president, suggesting voters were willing to split their decisions between national and state-level races.

A Republican Example

This dynamic isn’t limited to one party.

In 2020, Susan Collins won re-election in Maine despite then-President Trump having a significantly negative approval rating in the state.

Her victory was attributed to building a broad coalition—winning support from independents, moderates, and even some voters who supported Biden at the top of the ticket.

What to Watch Moving Forward

As the next election cycle approaches, the analysis points to a few key indicators beyond presidential approval:

• The composition of party identification in polling samples
• The margin among independent voters
• The ability of candidates to build crossover support

While presidential approval remains an important backdrop, history suggests it’s not always decisive on its own.

The Bottom Line

Midterm elections are often shaped by national sentiment—but decided at the margins.

And increasingly, those margins are found in the middle.