Cheaper Gas Is Sticking Around in 2026

Even amid geopolitical turmoil in Venezuela, forecasters say American drivers are likely to see the lowest gas prices since the Covid era this year — a rare pocket of financial relief in an otherwise expensive economy.

According to new forecasts from GasBuddy, the national average price for gasoline is expected to come in at about $2.97 per gallon in 2026. If that projection holds, it would mark the fourth consecutive year of falling gas prices and the first time the annual average dips below $3 since 2020.

That’s a stark contrast to 2022, when prices surged past $5 per gallon following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and inflation climbed above 9%.

“Now things are looking pretty good,” said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis. “We’re finally out of the woods with the market rebalancing after Covid.”

Why Venezuela Isn’t Spiking Prices — Yet

GasBuddy finalized its 2026 outlook before the U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Still, analysts say the situation is unlikely to disrupt fuel prices in the near term.

Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure would take years, not months, meaning any production changes are unlikely to affect global supply quickly. Oil futures barely moved following the intervention — reinforcing the view that the event won’t immediately ripple through gas stations.

Where Gas Will Be Cheapest

Americans are expected to spend about $11 billion less on gasoline in 2026 than they did last year. Average household gas spending is projected at roughly $2,083 for the year — down sharply from 2022 highs.

Ten states are forecast to average below $2.75 per gallon:
Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.

Gas prices are expected to peak around $3.12 per gallon in May, when summer blends roll out and demand rises, before falling to roughly $2.83 by year’s end.

What’s Driving the Decline

The main force behind falling prices isn’t weak demand — it’s strong supply. Global oil prices fell roughly 20% in 2025, their steepest annual drop since 2020. Crude prices have now declined for four straight quarters, the longest losing streak in over two decades.

U.S. oil prices are projected to average around $51 per barrel in 2026, down from $65 last year, according to federal estimates. Increased output from OPEC, along with steady U.S. production, has kept markets well supplied.

The Risks That Could Change the Picture

Despite the optimistic outlook, analysts caution that several wildcards remain. Broader instability in Venezuela, escalating tensions in the Middle East, attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, or a sudden shift by OPEC to cut production could all push prices higher.

There’s also a longer-term tradeoff: sustained low prices may discourage U.S. drilling, eventually handing more market share back to OPEC producers.

Still, for now, gasoline stands out as one of the few everyday expenses moving decisively in consumers’ favor.