Economic Signals Grow More Uncertain, New Analysis Shows

A new analysis from political strategist David Winston suggests the U.S. economic outlook is becoming more complicated, even before factoring in global tensions such as the recent conflict involving Iran.

In the latest “WG Discussion Points” memo released March 13, Winston outlines three areas shaping voter perceptions of the economy: the gap between wages and prices, gas prices, and the current jobs outlook.

While some indicators show improvement compared with recent years, the overall picture remains uncertain.

Prices vs. Wages

One of the key economic concerns for voters continues to be the relationship between wages and rising prices.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices have still outpaced wages since January 2021, though the gap has narrowed compared with earlier levels.

The most recent reports show prices exceeding wages by 2.7%, a slight increase from 2.6% the previous month.

While this represents improvement compared with the 4.8% gap that existed at the end of Joe Biden’s presidency, Winston notes that voters remain dissatisfied with the overall economic situation.

According to his analysis, many Americans acknowledge that economic conditions have improved somewhat but believe the economy still needs significant repair.

Gas Prices and Energy Costs

Gas prices have also played a major role in shaping public perception of the economy.

When Donald Trump began his current term in January 2025, the national average price for gasoline was $3.23, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Earlier in the year, prices briefly dipped below $3 per gallon for the first time since 2021.

However, following the start of a military operation known as Operation Epic Fury, the national average has risen again.

As of the latest data cited in Winston’s memo, the average price has climbed to $3.63 per gallon.

Concerns About Job Growth

The labor market is another area raising concerns.

Over the past nine months—from June 2025 through February 2026—the economy has experienced a net loss of approximately 32,000 jobs, according to Winston’s analysis.

The fourth quarter of 2025 alone saw 116,000 jobs lost, a trend that coincides with slower economic growth.

The most recent GDP report showed growth of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, following stronger 4.4% growth in the third quarter.

The Policy Challenge Ahead

Winston concludes that policymakers now face a difficult balancing act.

Much of the legislative focus in recent years has centered on bringing down inflation and stabilizing the cost of living.

But the emerging jobs picture raises an additional challenge.

Historically, Winston notes, administrations have struggled even when addressing just one of these issues—whether inflation or employment.

Trying to manage both at the same time, he argues, could prove significantly more difficult.