Childcare, Work, and the GOP’s Chance to Lead

The Lingering Workforce Effects of COVID

One of the lingering effects of the COVID-era that we seem unable to fully shake off resides in the employment marketplace. The epidemic dislodged millions of workers, with a disproportionate impact on entry-level workers in the hospitality and tourism industries, and as a result, disproportionately on women. Women represent a significant percentage of workers in the hospitality, travel, and tourism sectors, and those industries accounted for a staggering percentage of the pandemic-era job loss.

Why Hospitality Has Yet to Fully Recover

A quick snapshot of the restaurant industry tells the tale. While women represent just under half of the nation’s workforce, they represent 55 percent of all restaurant workers. In fact, according to data published by the National Restaurant Association, 50 percent of restaurant managers and 57 percent of restaurant supervisors are female. Women also make up a significant majority of tipped positions in the industry – roughly 69 percent of waitstaff and 59 percent of bartenders are female. You want to find a business that is still reeling from COVID? Look no further than your favorite bar or restaurant down the street. But at the same time, the industry is still hiring – in fact, restaurants are back to their pre-COVID status, facing an industry-wide labor shortage. And why? If you poll those same workers, you will find that a key barrier to workforce participation, whether it be for those returning to work or for first-time workers, is the availability of affordable, quality childcare. The bottom line is that the childcare and labor shortage issues are increasingly becoming intertwined.

How Childcare Has Traditionally Been Viewed

The childcare issue has been traditionally viewed through two lenses. From a fiscal perspective, the federal government and many states have long maintained various subsidy and/or tax credit programs designed to help working families afford and have better access to childcare. They have also pursued policies specifically designed to subsidize the creation and maintenance of childcare facilities themselves. In the employment community, childcare has traditionally been seen as a benefit and many companies subsidize childcare for their employees or have experimented with on-site facilities at the workplace. However, not many players in the entry-level employment space have participated in programs like those.

Democrats and the Progressive Push on Childcare

But a potential change in how Americans view and talk about childcare could be underfoot. From a broader perspective, many Democrats have long been focused on this issue as part of their larger progressive agenda. In fact, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani drew significant recent attention to the issue while leveraging universal childcare as a top campaign promise. Progressives in other jurisdictions have also included the issue as a key part of their affordability pitch to voters, and it is likely to reemerge as a key issue in the upcoming midterm elections.

Republican Exceptions and a Proven Model

Conversely, not many Republicans have traditionally focused on this space, citing additional burdens to taxpayers and employers. But there have been notable exceptions. In 2002, a citizen ballot initiative set Florida on the path to becoming the first state in the country to offer universal VPK for 4-year-olds. Florida Governor Jeb Bush and the Republican legislature established the first program in 2005, and it has served as a national model. A broad cross-section of states has followed Florida’s path and offers universal, or near-universal, Pre-K/VPK. They include. Oklahoma, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, New York, and D.C., with others like California and Colorado working on programs.

A Subtle but Meaningful Shift on the Right

However, subtle shifts on both sides of the aisle are underway that potentially could give increased momentum to what has been a fairly static issue. Republicans, for their part, have been on a journey to be more aggressive advocates for the working class. Over the last few years, Republicans, particularly at the state level, have been leading the way on introducing market-based solutions for paid and family leave. Republican leaders have also embraced and led the portable benefits conversation, and increasingly made overtures to unionized workers, most notably through Vice President J.D. Vance and U.S. Senator Josh Hawley. The recent populist tilt by Republicans away from the employer community and towards workers is creating room for this conversation on the political Right that has not previously existed.

Democrats Reframe the Argument

From the Democratic side, childcare advocates have pivoted their positioning and talk less of the issue as an entitlement or benefit and more as a natural tie-in to existing (and very popular) HeadStart, Pre-K, or VPK programs. In fact, the state of New Mexico just became the first state in the country to offer free childcare to all residents regardless of income by directly conflating childcare and early Kindergarten enrollment. New Mexico’s program marks a new era in this growing conversation.

Two Policy Trends Converging

In terms of public policy, two major trendlines are converging in the universal childcare space: a national bipartisan push for expanded paid parental leave (birth through 3-6 months) and a national bipartisan push for expanded VPK programs (beginning at 4-years old but expanding to capture younger children). With different motivations and policy solutions, high-profile Democratic and Republican leaders have pursued both issue sets at the state and federal levels for years, slowly but surely closing the gap between the two. There’s been a growing consensus on the importance of these developmental years to children, with many Republicans and Democrats approaching the issue through an education policy framework. The net result has been government-supported programs that are quickly closing the gap between kindergarten enrollment and the end of paid parental leave programs.

A Political Opportunity Hiding in Plain Sight

In short, there has been growing bipartisan agreement to work on policy solutions and expand government programs in this space. Certainly, Democratic leaders have established a broader consensus around policy solutions and are driving government intervention in this area. And it shouldn’t be surprising that a Democrat trifecta state like New Mexico is the first to stand up a universal childcare program. That said, most Republicans and most of the employer community haven’t opposed these programs (childcare or parental leave). Opposition, or criticism, has typically been narrowly focused on aspects of the program mechanics or funding. And Republicans are likely to continue bringing forward alternative approaches.

Why This Could Be a Winning Issue for Republicans

The evolution of policy shifts by both parties is always a fascinating process, and this emerging conversation is no exception. The opportunity for Republicans to simultaneously help much of the entry-level employer community address critical staffing issues, make important progress with young and female voters, and continue their growing influence in the state and local education arena is all right in front of them. Like we’ve recently seen with paid leave and portable benefits, smart, innovative ideas from conservatives on the childcare issue could wrestle yet another “pro-worker” issue away from the Blue team and put it in the Red column.

Joe Kefauver is a senior advisor to Americans for a Modern Economy, an organization committed to ensuring that local, state, and federal policies reflect changing technologies that are reshaping the way consumers, businesses, and communities operate in the 21st-century economy.